Best quotes from the 2018 letter from Warren Buffett to Berkshire Hathaway investors

Warren Buffett (tag) is the most famous investor ever, head of Berkshire Hathaway and known for his folksy demeanor, common-sense approach to investing (and life) and because every year he writes a letter to the investors in his company.

The letter goes beyond the normal yearly balance you get from most companies and is an open letter available to anyone online. This is the fourth or fifth time I read the letter that’s filled with the wisdom and quotes you could get from your grandpa but that coming from Warren Buffett are a lot of fun to read and analyze. Here are the ones I liked the most this year:

“Don’t ask the barber whether you need a haircut”

What a start! Any questions?

Buffett brings this up while discussing why investment bankers always applaud acquisitions (because they will receive hefty fees) CEO’s will seek such deals (they are the can-do type and acquisitions let them leave their personal mark) and subordinates will cheer up (they get bonuses and supersized salaries as a result).

OK, I will never be involved in discussing an acquisition, how would one apply this to money? For starters, never buy anything on the advice of anyone that gets paid to sell that to you: insurance agents, investment “advisors”, etc. And, of course, don’t ask your actual barber if you need a trim…

“long-tail business”

He didn’t invent the term, which refers to businesses that target low-demand items. How is this relevant for Berkshire? Their core business is insurance, but thanks in part to their size they are able to focus on long-tail insurance deals. Other insurance companies will write you a normal policy to insure your car. These are ‘average’ policies where the money comes and goes constantly. Berkshire, on the other hand, specialized in reinsuring other policies (or other companies, such as AIG) that will not be claimed as often and in the meantime allow them to keep the premiums, accumulate them in what they call ‘float’, money that they leverage to make their own acquisitions. Berkshire sits on $100B in cash…

How can one use this information? Not sure, but it is something I am happy to have learned and one day may come in handy.

“In America, equity investors have the wind at their back.”

Buffett is a devoted believer in the boundless potential of America’s economy and businesses. Sometimes I second-guess myself on whether to pull some money back from stocks and hedge some to bonds but Buffett makes several hints in the letter that there are still opportunities to make money in stocks (even if it is increasingly difficult for him due to the sheer amount of his assets).

“If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
     If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;”
From the poem “If” by Rudyard Kipling. I am not a poem expert but lately, I have found that there is a lot of wisdom to be gained from “old-school” poetry, and I have the impression poetry is not supposed to be explained but read and re-read and everyone should draw their own conclusions, I liked the insight I got from those verses and I hope you do too.
(I daydream a lot and tend to over-analyze so I have to work on this, which is ironic because I should actually work less on this and just do more, or be more.)
It is surely not just by chance that he quotes this poem that starts:
“If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs…”
…which is none other than the “Buffett rule”: be greedy when everyone is scared and be scared when everyone is greedy (or buy when everyone sells and sell when everyone buys).
“Performance comes, performance goes. Fees never falter.”
Discussing his bet that index funds deliver better returns than professionally managed funds he sarcastically reminds us that those money managers get their fee even if they suck; which they do (do get the fees and do suck).
For further insight refer to the first quote.
“Though markets are generally rational, they occasionally do crazy things.”
 Long story short, as I mentioned earlier, Buffet bet that a plain-vanilla index fund would beat the performance of a bunch of hedge funds over a ten-year period. This was a real bet made with real money at stake. The money would go to charity. They (Buffett and the other bettor) bought a bond they set aside to pay up. After a while they realized the bond market was doing the ‘crazy thing’: the cost of the safety they offer was too high because the return was extremely low, around the inflation level, hardly acceptable.
On the other hand, the market was ‘rational’ (or normal) over the ten years the bet lasted which is why the index fund prevailed.
Bottom line: if you are not clever (or clairvoyant) enough to know what crazy things will occasionally happen then bet on the average, and on average index funds are king. For index funds to win you have to invest for the long run (the bet went on for 10 years) when the crazy things average themselves out.
“Investing is an activity in which consumption today is foregone in an attempt to allow greater consumption at a later date. “Risk” is the possibility that this objective won’t be attained.”
 These are almost textbook definitions (maybe they are) but I like how simple they are and how they bring the bigger picture upfront. Regarding ‘risk’ he reminds us that risk is not just the small chance of catastrophic losses but also the certainty of a constant loss of low performance: again, they were losing money on the bond.
“Stick with big, ‘easy’ decisions and eschew activity”
I once read elsewhere that he said everyone should get a 20-slot punch card, to make a whole every time we make an important decision (on money and life). So only 20 decisions are allowed in your life. Only a few of those decisions will involve money: take a job or not, buy that house or not, and what to invest in. So those investment decisions will be rare and far apart. Investing in an index fund could be one of them.
The other very interesting thing about Buffett and Berkshire is that they not only make the letter open to the public but they also have turned their annual shareholders meeting into almost a carnival or a celebration (merited by their success). The past couple of years I watched the live streaming (available through Yahoo! Finance) of the Q&A from Buffet and Charlie Munger (Berkshire’s #2) and this year I plan to attend the ‘party’ in Omaha in May.
A ton of books about Warren Buffett can be found on Amazon and eBay.

What’s your favorite quote?

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